Market Timing Results

*** The total return includes the rare outsized negative returns which are marked by ** in the performance tables below. By employing sell stops such as 6% on NASDAQ Composite and 18% on TECL which have been suggested since we launched this site, drawdowns are minimized. Buying and holding does not reduce the inevitable deep drawdowns that come such as in 2022 so on a risk/reward basis, it is better to time the market. The model has always profited during major corrections such as in 2000-2002, late 2008, early 2020, and 2022 which not only removes the buy & hold risk, but also generates steep profits when most are losing. Some members set their own sell stops depending on their risk tolerance levels which is unique for each person.

In this Era of QE, since late 2008 when QE began, the steeper the drop, the greater the upside since tech-driven major averages such as TECL often hit new highs often within a few months of the typical 'V' bottom. Because of this, some start buying the further major indices fall then, as they make new highs, profits are slowly taken. It's an entirely different dynamic but suits some investors' risk tolerance preferences. Some use the MDM in this manner so if its losses exceed a certain amount during a buy signal, they first sell their position then start to slowly buy if the market continues to fall even if the model stays on a cash signal. Likewise, they may start to take partial profits as the market continues to make new highs on a buy signal. Since markets inevitably make major lows or highs, this is a way to increase profits overall. Further, when the rate of global liquidity (money printing across central banks) is accelerating, the model is far more likely to go from buy to cash (instead of sell) back to buy as it did through most of 2020 and 2021.