VoSI VooDoo(TM) Report - The Legend of the Silver Surfer Circa 2010

Published:

23 Apr 2024 19:35 ET

The VoSI VooDoo Report
Offbeat Ideas and Commentary from the Depths of Gil's Trading Notes

One of the main reasons I am fixated on silver around the 20-dema is based on how it acted in late 2010 as it began its epic run towards $50. What I remember quite distinctly is that in November 2010 the iShares Silver Trust (SLV) went into a climactic near-term move in mid-November 2010. That ended with a very ugly, massive-volume reversal that sent it right back to the 20-dema.

From there, however, it posted an MAU&R at the 20-dema and then gapped higher two days later. It then rallied to new highs, but double-topped before again finding support along the 20-dema. It then set-up tight sideways along the 10-dma and broke out to clear the $30 level for the first time ever back in late 2010.

Once SLV cleared the $30 level, following the 20-dema all the way up, it began to build its first real base, a cup-with-handle formation that took seven weeks to set up before SLV broke out again. We’ll see how similar 2024 is to late 2010, but you can see why I consider the 20-dema a key reference for support during any continued uptrend from here. But the action observed in November 2010 is similar to what we have seen over the past week, a massive-volume reversal off fresh highs followed by a shakeout at the 20-dema before SLV turned back to the upside. Food for thought from my trading notes.

Chris and I played this move to near perfection using the ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) ETF, eventually selling on the precise day that silver futures hit their all-time high at 49.82. I recall quite vividly the morning that silver futures were printing near the $50 level and we both agreed that it as time to sell. As it turned out, that was the exact top, and we sold right into it. One of the few times in my investment career that I have sold something at or nearly at the ultimate peak.

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