Major averages closed near their lows Friday with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials both finishing under their respective 50-day moving averages. Even though volume was lower for both averages, this is the first time they have broken below this moving average since last December.
In addition, even though University of Michigan's Preliminary Consumer Sentiment came in much stronger than expected along with strong April retail sales and business inventories, markets were unable to stage a rally. This suggests markets are vulnerable to more downside. Keep a close eye on short-sale set ups in the days ahead.
Indeed, the number of distribution days continues to be substantial so the question remains whether QE can create another shallow floor and push markets higher, or will the market correct further as it did in last August and earlier this year. Given the number of headwinds, the odds seem to favor a deeper correction.
Futures are up after Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for crude oil prices after previously forecasting lower prices. Warren Buffet also disclosed a 9.8 million share stake in APPL, which makes us wonder where he was the entire time the stock was on an epic upside price run that began back in 2004. We question such news events as legitimate catalysts for a market rally, however, and would watch a gap-up open this morning closely for signs of failure.
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