Core PCE prices matched estimates but the wage report from the ECI this morning is the Fed's favored measure of labor compensation. The ECI is of greatest relevance to the Fed, wages, and salaries for private sector workers and showed no meaningful deceleration in Q1. It came in at 1.5% QoQ which is the highest reading on record after the 1.6% gain in Q1 '22. In consequence, CME Fed Futures now shows an 85% change of a 25 bps rate hike when the Fed next meets in May.
While market averages rallied yesterday, they did so on lower volume, and adv/dec remains very poor along with deleterious showings from most industry groups. Buyer beware.
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