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Market Direction Model - Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL on August 11, 2023

Model switches to CASH/NEUTRAL.

The NASDAQ Composite is failing at its 50dma. Best to minimize risk. That said, this market has a tendency to look its worst when it shortly thereafter, finds sloppy support, then heads higher. That said, the recent reports here and here  show the odds tilt in favor of a potentially sideways market at best.

The yield on the 10- and 30-year Treasurys are still uncomfortably high thus could serve as a capital drain on stocks. The recent Fitch downgrade of US credit pushed bond yields higher making them potentially more attractive than stocks. The latest PPI came in at 0.1% over estimates for both normal and core which also pushed yields higher.


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