In relation to
this piece entitled "Inflation's long tail; How to catch the next big winner; On WW 3":
Q: I see three missing pieces, right now, to crypto freeing us from government authority. Can you help point out where I'm wrong?
1) Privacy - Most coins now make it easier to track money flows than cash. Secret, Monero, Tornado, and Pirate Coin may offer solutions but are not widely penetrated and still mostly off the radar of governments.
2) Off ramps to fiat and/or ways to transact in crypto - Outside of the token "buying a car with crypto" example, I see no widely adopted solutions that allow users to spend crypto to buy everyday things without an off ramp to fiat tracked by a government. Maybe Luna's work in South Korea is closest.
3) Quantum computing - By 2030 quantum computing will make security of blockchain obsolete.
For me, not FUD but real questions/concerns blocking me from going from 15% to all in on crypto.
A: 1) Transparency is the key which bitcoin provides. Transparency creates the separation of money and state. Governments can try to block such as transfer of value just as China and Russia tried and failed. As one parallel, Govts tried to do away with decentralized p2p file sharing due to copyright issues but nevertheless the number of users grew beyond 100 million over the years. With every “pirates bay” removed by the courts, ten new ones sprung up like mushrooms.
Decentralisation and DAOs are outside govt control. Same reason why millions of families in developing nations defy govt law by converting their plummeting fiat into bitcoin and sending it outside the country.
2) As usage grows (bitcoin doubles every year and finally reached 1% since inception), more of value will be transacted via crypto. Majors have invested billions in the metaverse for good reason. The metaverse does not need fiat. More fiat will become bitcoinized and dollarized in the coming years.
Q: RE: Coins. They can make coin transactions illegal for goods, food or transportation, making a conversion necessary to use and from that point it could be tracked. I think countries will move quickly to regulate, since governments are now exercising the ability to freeze access to money for any individual they deem a threat to the government. America will follow suit rapidly.
BTC will trade like any other stock…it is not a fiat currency. It appears to have another cycle up to complete phase 2…then it will top and recede into history. And, Phase 2 may be cut short if there is a market recession, since coins have followed the market with every draw down thus far. It has made a double top at this point.
Agree with you on Russia- they will not stop until they have all of Europe. And, now there is also China- they will take over Taiwan, India and the Pacific Basin countries. This leaves primarily North America and South America will be no contest. Biden has probably already cut a deal with Russia. Although China has thoroughly infiltrated the US—idealogy being taught in all schools/universities, they control pharmaceutical manufacture, clothing, transportation components, literally everything—America has very little manufacturing capability left. Hate to think this, but America may be the war zone of the future.
A: Transparency is the key which bitcoin provides. Transparency creates the separation of money and state. Governments can try to block transfer of value just as China and Russia tried and failed. As one parallel, Govts tried to do away with decentralized p2p file sharing due to copyright issues but nevertheless the number of users grew beyond 100 million over the years. With every “pirates bay” removed by the courts, ten new ones sprung up like mushrooms.
So while govts can try to block, decentralized transfer of value will inevitably win, but I agree that this will take some time to reach. Ultimately, the value of the blockchain space will reach the tens then hundreds of trillions. It is exponential. It was only 6 years ago that the entire space was worth a mere $6 billion. Exponential adds zeroes onto the total faster than human minds can predict.
Decentralisation and DAOs are outside govt control. Same reason why millions of families in developing nations defy govt law by converting their plummeting fiat into bitcoin and sending it outside the country.
As usage grows (bitcoin doubles every year and finally reached 1% since inception), more of value will be transacted via crypto. Majors have invested billions in the metaverse for good reason. The metaverse does not need fiat. More fiat will become bitcoinized and dollarized in the coming years.
Bitcoin has corrected -94% twice, 87%, 85%, 84%, among other steep corrections since its inception in 2009, yet it always manages to reach new highs. $1 invested in bitcoin in 2010 is worth about $5.5 million today. Nothing in the history of speculation even comes close. When bubbles with no value burst, ie, tulipmania, they never reach new highs again. Bitcoin keeps reaching new highs even after so-calling crippling corrections where most of its value is depleted. Why? Because its killer app is borderless transfer of value, mathematical governance, and fixed supply. Because the technology is unprecedented, it seems unreal and valueless to some.
